MILC Group

Discover the Kelly Criterion in Modern Football Betting

The Kelly Criterion is widely regarded as one of the most effective bankroll management strategies in today’s betting market. Yet, many players are still unaware of what it is and how powerful it can be. In this article, the experts at BET88.ai will break down the Kelly Criterion and show you how it can help you minimize risks while betting online. Let’s https://wintips.com/ explore how the Kelly formula works in football betting at FUN88.

History of the Kelly Criterion

The Kelly Criterion was first introduced in 1956 by John L. Kelly to optimize the growth of capital for AT&T. Originally designed for communication technologies, it quickly spread into finance and later into gambling, with horse racing being one of the earliest applications.

This formula requires precise calculations and patience to achieve long-term effectiveness. Over the years, the Kelly Criterion has been refined into the following formula:

Bet Size = ((Odds × Probability of Winning) – 1) / (Odds – 1) × 100

Pros and Cons of the Kelly Criterion

Advantages

Helps manage betting funds effectively before and during play.

Calculates optimal stake size based on winning probabilities and online bookmakers odds.

Reduces risk and increases long-term profit potential.

Provides a broader perspective on the match before betting.

Makes it easier to analyze statistics and build strategies.

Disadvantages

Not 100% accurate, since probabilities are estimates.

Requires the bettor to correctly assess the probability of winning for each match.

See more: how to win millions in betting

Applying the Kelly Criterion in Betting

The Kelly Criterion can be applied across all betting platforms and sports. For example:

Match: Watford vs Chelsea

Total bankroll: $100

Estimated win probability for Watford: 60%

Odds: 1.93

Kelly calculation:(((1.93 × 0.60) – 1) / (1.93 – 1)) × 100 = 16.99%

This means you should stake 16.99% of your bankroll on Watford.

Variations of the Kelly Criterion

Full KellyA bold strategy, allowing players to stake up to 50% of their bankroll. This can lead to rapid wins but also carries high risk.

Constant KellyInstead of varying percentages, a fixed percentage (e.g., always 15%) is used for betting, regardless of changes in probability.

Fractional KellyA safer alternative, where players bet only a fraction of the Kelly amount. For example, Half Kelly (50%), Quarter Kelly (25%), or any portion of the bankroll they choose.

These variations provide flexibility depending on your risk tolerance and betting style.

Final Thoughts

The Kelly Criterion is a powerful tool for bankroll management in football betting. By using it wisely, you can reduce risk, improve your long-term profitability, and make more informed betting decisions. However, remember that it relies heavily on accurate probability assessments.

For the best results, combine the Kelly Criterion with expert football odds analysis to maximize your chances of success.